In excellent news, Congress is on observe to move a short-term funding invoice that may preserve the federal government open and stop a shutdown forward of a deadline this week. In probably extra regarding information, nonetheless, the invoice solely postpones a full debate on authorities spending, establishing what may very well be a very contentious funding struggle within the new yr.

This week, the Home permitted a two-step short-term funding invoice, often known as a unbroken decision, or CR. The invoice will preserve the federal government funded at present ranges and doesn’t embody any new spending cuts. It additionally doesn’t comprise new spending requests, which means no new Israel support — which has bipartisan help — or Ukraine support, which has some Republican backing however is opposed by different conservatives.

The invoice’s method is uncommon in that it units two totally different deadlines for determining a long-term funding plan: Funding for some sections of presidency — transportation, housing, power, agriculture, and veterans’ affairs — will expire January 19, and funding for different sections — together with protection — will expire February 2. The laws now heads to the Senate, which is predicted to approve it.

Home Republicans’ aim behind proposing this staggered method is to forestall the passage of a large omnibus bundle that features all of the spending payments on the similar time. Republicans declare they’re against omnibuses as a result of their scale, and the truth that they have a tendency to pressure a fast vote on a big swath of funding proper earlier than the winter holidays. By utilizing what they’ve described as a “laddered” method, the GOP hopes to have extra time to barter over particular person payments and their particular priorities. The long-term aim is to make use of that course of to make deep cuts into authorities spending, an effort opposed by Democrats and the Biden White Home.

Within the close to time period, lawmakers’ actions bode effectively for making certain that companies and authorities companies keep open and useful, and that authorities workers don’t expertise disruptions to their workflow or paychecks. Very similar to it has accomplished prior to now, nonetheless, Congress’ determination to embrace a CR will enable it to easily procrastinate on the challenges of negotiating closing spending payments — and merely postpone the opportunity of a shutdown till 2024.

The dynamics establishing a January shutdown struggle, briefly defined

The breakdown of this week’s Home vote forecasts the conflicts but to return over the passage of full-year spending payments.

The CR handed this week 336-95, with substantial Democratic help and backing from some Republicans. Essentially the most conservative members of the GOP caucus, nonetheless, pilloried the laws. “It incorporates no spending reductions, no border safety, and never a single significant win for the American individuals,” the far-right Freedom Caucus stated in an announcement.

Proper-wing opposition to spending is one hurdle that Home Speaker Mike Johnson must proceed navigating as he tries to search out an settlement on the full-year payments that may fulfill everything of his convention. Doing so could show inconceivable, forcing Johnson to revisit the technique he took with the CR, crafting a bundle acceptable to Democrats in an effort to win their help.

Taking such a path may show perilous to his speakership, nonetheless. Beforehand, Republicans ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy for working with Democrats to move a CR to maintain the federal government open. This time round, lawmakers stated they wouldn’t but do the identical to Johnson since he nonetheless hasn’t had ample time on the job to handle conservative priorities.

“I’ve been on the job lower than three weeks, proper? I can’t change, I can’t flip an plane service in a single day,” Johnson advised CNN.

That doesn’t imply threats to Johnson’s management gained’t emerge once more subsequent yr, nonetheless. A few of his caucus’ right-most members have already begun to drift plans to say their energy by making procedural votes troublesome, and others have advised that their endurance with Johnson isn’t infinite. As Freedom Caucus member and Virginia Rep. Morgan Griffith advised Politico, “I feel most individuals are prepared to present him a while, however we have to see one thing totally different.”

Johnson signaled {that a} showdown was possible coming over spending in 2024 as Republicans sought to push extra of their priorities within the particular person payments, whereas additionally signaling that the GOP could have to make some compromises. “We’re not surrendering, we’re combating, however you must be smart about selecting the fights,” Johnson advised CNN. Additional including to the uncertainty, he added that he wouldn’t help any extra CRs — which means if Congress can’t get to a full yr spending deal, the federal government may shut down subsequent yr.

Democrats and Republicans are nonetheless actually far aside on spending priorities

There are key variations that may should be labored out on the full-year payments: conservative Republicans need main cuts, together with to international support, whereas some Republicans and lots of Democrats need new cash for Israel and Ukraine. Democrats typically wish to enhance environmental and schooling funding; many within the GOP (in addition to some extra reasonable Democrats) need more cash for border safety. In lots of circumstances, the wishes of those teams aren’t simply totally different, they’re oppositional.

Lawmakers must determine it out, nonetheless. Annually, Congress is meant to approve 12 appropriations payments that preserve companies and Congress funded via the tip of September. In the event that they don’t — or in the event that they don’t move a short-term funding extension — the federal government shuts down. The Republican-led Home has already handed seven of those payments, all of which fund the federal government at considerably decrease ranges than the agreed-upon limits in a debt ceiling deal. The Democrat-led Senate has handed three payments at ranges which are extra akin to the bounds within the settlement — and which have bipartisan help in that chamber. The 2 chambers will in the end must reconcile their variations of those payments earlier than they will transfer ahead.

Some Republicans have stated they wish to see way more excessive spending cuts throughout these measures, together with slashing Environmental Safety Company (EPA) funding, large cuts to little one care spending, and curbing meals support packages additional. Many within the occasion are additionally curious about gutting the insurance policies from President Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Discount Act, together with clawing again funding from all the pieces from the IRS to the Vitality Division.

The complete yr payments may very well be a messaging automobile for a few of Republicans’ tradition wars and political priorities as effectively. The GOP has stated it gained’t again funding for any range, fairness, and inclusion (DEI) authorities initiatives, for instance. Moreover, Ukraine support is poised to be a degree of rivalry as increasingly Republicans have turned in opposition to offering further monetary help to the nation in its protection in opposition to Russia’s invasion. And funding for border safety is predicted to be one other sticking level, with Republicans wanting to put aside extra assets for a border wall.

All of those are nonstarters for Democrats, who’ve included will increase in EPA funding, Pell Grant funding, and tribal program assets as a part of their Senate payments. Biden has additionally requested a complete of roughly $100 billion in supplemental support together with $61 billion in Ukraine support, $14 billion in Israel support, and $9 billion in humanitarian support to Gaza, Israel, and Ukraine.

For now, the CR ensures there gained’t be any shutdown drama over the vacations, although there’s no such assure for January and February. “This was a vital first step to get us to the subsequent stage in order that we are able to change how Washington works,” Johnson stated.