On October 13, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed raised eyebrows within the area and past by forcefully asserting that gaining low-cost, everlasting entry to a Purple Sea port is “an existential matter” for his landlocked nation.

“By 2030 [the population of Ethiopia] might be 150 million,” he stated in a televised tackle to parliament. “A inhabitants of 150 million can’t stay in a geographic jail.”

Ethiopia misplaced all its Purple Sea ports and have become the world’s largest land-locked nation in 1993, when Eritrea gained independence following a 30-year battle of liberation. Since then, Ethiopia has been absolutely depending on its neighbours – particularly Djibouti – for entry to ports and worldwide transport routes.

None of Ethiopia’s neighbours  – every a sovereign state with its personal geopolitical calculations and wishes – is below any obligation to supply Ethiopia low-cost and quick access to the ocean. In reality, they’ve each proper to make use of their shoreline as leverage of their interactions with their a lot bigger, richer and extra influential neighbour. But Abiy is obvious that his nation will acquire beneficial entry to the ocean and key worldwide buying and selling routes – come what may.

In his October 13 speech to parliament, he proposed potential methods ahead for “releasing” Ethiopia from its so-called “geopolitical jail”.

First, he recommended Ethiopia’s neighbours may give it everlasting, low-cost entry to their ports in return for shares in profitable public firm and tasks such because the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopian Airways or the Ethio telecom.

Then, slightly shockingly, he mused that maybe Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and Ethiopia may merge to kind one, “very huge” nation with ample entry to the ocean. In such a situation, he argued, this new huge African state can be “one other Russia, one other China, one other America” on the world stage.

In fact, given the facility and measurement imbalance between Ethiopia and its seaside neighbours, such a union wouldn’t be a coming collectively of equals, however a textbook colonial annexation by Ethiopia that may solely additional its personal geopolitical and geoeconomic pursuits whereas eradicating all sovereignty from its neighbours.

That Ethiopia’s prime minister is publicly advocating for such an association must be a explanation for concern for anybody curious about peace, stability and improvement in East Africa.

Additional,  Abiy stated in his October 13 speech that Ethiopia has “pure rights” to immediately entry the Purple Sea, and whether it is denied these “rights”, “there might be no equity and justice and if there isn’t any equity and justice, it’s a matter of time, we’ll struggle”.

Later within the speech, Abiy recommended that he’s not threatening violence, but his previous feedback, it’s clear that he believes the usage of drive, not less than for a final resort, could be very a lot within the playing cards.

At a gathering with traders in July, for instance, Abiy had overtly and unambiguously stated that whereas Ethiopia desires to “get a port by way of peaceable means”, if that plan fails, it might not hesitate to “use drive”.

That the prime minister of Ethiopia is overtly speaking about the potential of “preventing” over water entry, and publicly flaunting the institution of a single nation inside Ethiopia’s imagined sphere of affect – a area that has suffered Ethiopian imperial aggression previously and is at the moment awash with civil conflicts –  is a trigger for immense concern.

Ethiopia’s neighbours have been fast to denounce Abiy’s imperial calculations and reject any suggestion that they’d agree to surrender their independence to develop into half of a bigger regional energy, undoubtedly managed and led by Ethiopia.

“Djibouti is a sovereign nation, and subsequently, our territorial integrity will not be questionable, neither right now nor tomorrow,” stated Alexis Mohamed, a senior adviser to Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh.

Estifanos Afeworki, the Eritrean ambassador to Japan, has been equally forthright. “There isn’t a if and however about Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. No quantity of illegitimate instigation, propaganda, conspiracy and defamation can change this reality,” he stated on X, previously Twitter.

Somalia, in the meantime, underlined that its territorial integrity is “sacrosanct”.

As Ethiopia seems to prepare, in plain defiance of the United Nations Constitution, to fulfil its self-declared “rights” to the Purple Sea, the African Union (AU) should keep watch over Abiy’s obvious ambition to remodel Ethiopia right into a “nice energy” in Africa.

Abiy is more and more sounding and performing like one other world chief whose imperial ambitions and aggression have already triggered immense ache and struggling: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

Putin and others in his regime have repeatedly tried to legitimise and excuse Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the continuing battle on the Ukrainian individuals utilizing doubtful and discredited historic claims. They tried to counsel that Ukraine will not be a sovereign nation however a stolen a part of Russia, that its existence and independence are a menace to Russian safety and that Russia has a “pure proper” to its territories and sources.

Now, sadly, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Abiy, who was given the prize for securing a peace cope with Eritrea, seems to be following Russia’s violent and damaging footsteps.

Abiy’s Ethiopia clearly has ambitions to not solely acquire entry to the ocean however develop into an ideal energy on the earth.

The good powers of the world, from Russia to the US and China, have all amassed financial, diplomatic and army energy by way of battle, slavery, colonialism and imperialism.

Whether it is longing to develop into one such energy in Africa, nonetheless by way of “merging” with its smaller neighbours, Abiy’s Ethiopia will undoubtedly get on a path that can see it inflict a lot violence and abuse on the nations in its quick neighbourhood and past.

A transparent and unbiased evaluation of the world’s main powers demonstrates that since World Conflict II resulted in September 1945, they’ve triggered extra hurt than good – from Gaza to Afghanistan, Myanmar and Algeria. Any try to duplicate the trail Russia, China and the US took to changing into nice powers will solely foster excessive divisions and countless wars in Africa.

African nations ought to put an finish to Abiy’s imperial ambitions for good, earlier than it’s too late.

One of many AU’s founding goals is to “defend the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of its Member States’’. Within the face of Ethiopia’s blatant makes an attempt to disrespect the sovereignty of its neighbours, African nations ought to take a principled stance and unambiguously talk to Abiy that they received’t enable him to stroll everywhere in the rules-based worldwide order.

African leaders have the collective duty to safeguard the independence and territorial integrity of each nation, no matter its colonial historical past, measurement and army prowess.

Ethiopia has no existential disaster or enforceable claims over overseas territories. It should study to co-exist with its neighbours and stay inside its internationally recognised geographical boundaries.

The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.